As a proud South African, there’s no denying that our country can feel like a pretty scary place to live. Between the headlines and conversations in the streets, it’s easy to believe that crime, especially murder, is worse than it’s ever been. But is it really? What does the data tell us?

You may have seen headlines like:

“SA's murder rate rises to a two-decade high – and cops are powerless.”

Sure, these sound alarming, but here’s something many people don’t know: South Africa’s murder rate, while still a serious concern, has actually been on a steady downtrend since the 90s. It peaked around the time my parents decided to bring me into the world. That’s not to say we’re out of the woods, though. After 2010, we started seeing a worrying spike, which many attribute to political instability, state capture, and even the crippling effects of load-shedding.

By Chthonicdaemon - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=122418499

But when it comes to what really kills South Africans, it’s not what you might expect. Sure, interpersonal violence remains a terrifying 4% of deaths per 100,000 people, but what about the rest?

The Real Killers: Illness, Not Crime

According to data from the University of Washington and VizHub (GBD Compare), the real threat to South Africans isn't just crime but something far less discussed: health-related issues. Foodborne illnesses, sexually transmitted diseases, and the persistent impact of HIV/AIDS are some of the biggest dangers lurking beneath the surface.

In fact, AIDS remains one of the top killers in South Africa, despite advancements in treatment. It’s a reminder that while crime dominates headlines, our nation’s health challenges are the silent crises we must confront.

What’s Really Harming Us?

To put things into perspective, road injuries are just as deadly as interpersonal violence. Yet, no one’s moving overseas to escape traffic. It’s this discrepancy between perception and reality that highlights how much we rely on half-truths rather than real data.

While it’s easy to see South Africa’s issues through the lens of crime, we must broaden our focus to include the health issues that claim thousands of lives each year.

The truth is, the data doesn’t lie – but sometimes, our interpretation of it does.

Embracing the Data-Driven Approach

The next time you hear someone talking about how bad crime is in South Africa, consider the bigger picture. Data tells a different story, one where the leading causes of death aren’t always what we expect.

A data-driven approach reveals that while interpersonal violence and road injuries are real threats, the greater killers lie in preventable diseases and health conditions.

And just like the famous line from The Lion King goes:

To break this circle, we need to address the issues that aren’t making the front page. Only then can we start solving the real problems facing South Africans.

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