Rock, Paper, Payday: The $20 Million Decision
Balancing Data-Driven Decisions with Human Instinct.
What if your next move in Rock, Paper, Scissors could win you $20 million? Sounds absurd, right? But in 2005, it wasn’t a playground game—it was a high-stakes decision for Kanae Ishibashi, the president of Christie’s Japan.
“Being right when it matters most isn’t the same as being right in most matters.”
The scenario? Takashi Hashiyama, head of Maspro Denkoh Corp., couldn’t decide whether Christie’s or Sotheby’s should auction his company’s prized art collection. This wasn’t just any collection—it included a rare van Gogh, and the stakes were sky-high: $20 million.
When Business Comes Down to Rock, Paper, Scissors
Unable to make the decision, Hashiyama proposed an ancient, universal tiebreaker: Rock, Paper, Scissors (RPS).
Kanae Ishibashi had one weekend to prepare. What did she choose?
If Kanae had grown up in Pretoria, she might have known the primary school dark arts. Finger guns. The tried and tested technique that would have any rock paper scissors game devolve into a debate of what beats what.
Kind of like What Beats Rock Game, a lightning fast generative AI built on deepinfra.
Kanea didn’t end up using stats or psychology to make her decision. She turned to her family. On Monday morning, she confidently wrote her answer: Scissors.
Sotheby’s, on the other hand, made a calculated choice. They went with Paper, the statistically safest move in the game. Unfortunately for them, Christie’s won the $20 million collection.
The AI Edge (Or Not?)
At Symbyte, we’ve taken RPS beyond gut instinct—we’ve built a generative AI capable of mastering the game. When we unleashed it at the AI Expo Africa, its first move mirrored Sotheby’s: Paper.
To break this circle, we need to address the issues that aren’t making the front page. Only then can we start solving the real problems facing South Africans.
The Scissors Gambit
Why did Kanae choose scissors? It wasn’t analytics or theory—it was a dream. Her twins’ advice
— Everybody knows you go scissors
— sealed the deal.
And it worked. Christie’s walked away with the prize. Auction houses often assign code names to their auctions, and fittingly, Christie’s code name for the sale remains: “Scissors.”
What Can We Learn?
Whether it’s $20 million art auctions or strategic business decisions, being statistically right doesn’t always mean being right when it matters most. Success often hinges on intuition, creativity, and a touch of boldness.
At Symbyte, we explore the fine line between data-driven decisions and human intuition, helping businesses make the right call when it matters most.
